Chapter 613 - Military Intelligence
"We shouldn't use the 'Ao-Song' name extensively in external communications for now," Yu Eshui said. "The Red Turban Army at the end of the Yuan Dynasty did want to 'restore the Great Song under sun and moon.' Zhu Yuanzhang was also a member of the Red Turban Army, but in the end he eliminated the Young Prince of Song and established the 'Great Ming.' The Ming court probably has some misgivings about 'Great Song descendants.' For now, we can follow the Red Turban example in our external communications, using an army name temporarily in place of a state name. I propose we call ourselves the Fubo Army—it's very fitting."
"Actually, we could call ourselves the GLA," Wen Desi said. "Global Liberation Army. Sounds good, doesn't it, Secretary of State Ma?"
"We can use that later. Calling ourselves GLA right now won't mean anything to Ming people." Ma Qianzhu said. "I suggest that starting today, we begin using the Fubo Army designation in the signatures of our official documents and proclamations."
Jiang Shan returned to the Intelligence Bureau's office. As soon as he arrived, he received a call from He Ming instructing him to: "Immediately ascertain the status of Guangdong's Ming forces."
"The Intelligence Bureau was just established a few days ago, and already here comes a concrete mission," Jiang Shan said at the evening briefing. "This is the Foreign Intelligence Bureau's first key project. We must deliver, otherwise we'll have trouble fighting for budget allocations in the future."
Wang Ding cleared his throat and spoke first: "Most of this intelligence can be queried from the archives of the general intelligence repository. The historical intelligence compiled by the Grand Library and materials collected over the years by the Guangzhou Station contain quite a bit we can use. I plan to search through these materials and compile them."
"Isn't that intelligence too old?" Jiang Shan expressed doubt.
"It's old in the sense of two or three years, but the Ming forces' situation won't have changed much."
"This matter mainly depends on intelligence from the Guangzhou Station," said Xu Ke, the so-called "naval military intelligence officer." "If the Ming are going to attack Lingao, they'll have to cross the sea. The Guangzhou Station has informants positioned at key transportation points throughout Guangdong. As long as there's a concentration of warships or troop movements, news will come. Our guessing here is completely useless."
These informants were the various branch offices and outer counters of the Qiwei Escort Bureau. Every five days they reported local observations to the Guangzhou headquarters via carrier pigeon. Though this intelligence wasn't particularly timely, given the extremely slow marching speed of ancient armies, such speed was acceptable.
"If we just sit waiting for Guangzhou Station intelligence and collect some archives and call that mission accomplished, there's no point to this Foreign Intelligence Bureau," Jiang Shan said. "We need to send people to Guangdong! Specifically to gather military intelligence."
"Since we've already trained personnel for overseas deployment, this collection of Guangdong Ming troop movements is an excellent practical opportunity. We should let them go try it out. Qiongzhou isn't really anything—it's when they reach Guangdong territory that they'll truly be fish in the ocean. Whether the training succeeded or not, this will be the test." Xu Ke was also interested in this proposal. "If we're sending people, I'm willing to go."
"Isn't that a bit too risky..."
"Since we're doing intelligence work, this level of risk should be expected. Of course, we can't ask intelligence personnel to do dangerous things like sneaking into a military camp to take photos, but they should at least have the ability to observe from a distance."
"If it's just observation from a distance, why send more people? The Guangzhou Station has informants in many places. Sending more people would be redundant." Wang Ding objected. "Guangdong intelligence work should be done by the Guangzhou Station. If Station Chief Guo indicates insufficient manpower or other difficulties, we can send people to the Guangzhou Station to assist, but we absolutely cannot dispatch people separately. That not only wastes human resources but also violates work procedures."
Wang Ding continued: "Intelligence work is ultimately about analysis. Rather than just providing a pile of fragmented details, we should focus our energy on analyzing and organizing existing materials. Submit a thorough and reliable report."
Jiang Shan thought Wang Ding, ever since becoming Analysis Section Chief, kept proclaiming "analysis is everything"—obviously trying to elevate his own importance.
But his words were hard to refute, and then Li Yan also chimed in to support his view.
"Exactly. I also suggest focusing our efforts on organizing, judging, and analyzing existing materials. As for what materials we're missing, just wire the Guangzhou Station and have them collect it—that's their job."
"That depends on how long the Guangzhou Station can survive. Guo Yi and his people are in a bad situation." Jiang Shan thought of several telegrams the Guangzhou Station had sent recently, including reports of greedy hands from all directions reaching toward them. Though the situation was currently unclear, once fighting broke out, whether the Guangzhou Station's various businesses could survive was very much in question.
"Si Kaide is already discussing the situation of the Guangzhou-Leizhou stations," Li Yan said. "Though strictly speaking this is the Colonial Trade Department's business, our Intelligence Bureau also has an obligation to protect overseas stations."
"My view is very simple: protect people, not property," Jiang Shan said. "As long as we can safely extract the people, that's fine. Money and goods are external things—if lost, so be it. We can get back a hundred times as much in the future."
Li Yan said: "If possible, we should still try to preserve property. I think the expedient of 'saving the nation through a curved path'—such as dedicating to local power-brokers—is worth considering. At least that way the businesses can continue operating, and recovering them later would be easy enough."
"As for personnel safety, the scope should be broad." Jiang Shan believed the Guangzhou Station had just completed a large-scale personnel turnover and vetting process. Many personnel were workers transferred from Lingao; losing them would be regrettable. As for locally hired craftsmen, servants, and managers, they should also be protected as much as possible—even if they couldn't be evacuated to Lingao, measures should be taken to ensure their personal and property safety.
"This will greatly increase indigenous personnel's trust in us. They'll know that in times of danger, we won't just abandon them and leave."
"There's also the Leizhou Station. Leizhou is remote; this ill wind from Guangzhou won't reach them for a while, but we shouldn't let our guard down."
"If you ask me, Guangzhou can be evacuated, but Leizhou absolutely cannot," Wang Ding said firmly, rapping the table. "If Leizhou is evacuated, the Sugar Company operation is finished."
Guangzhou was purely in the circulation and commerce sector. Apart from the distilled liquor workshop having some modern technology—using twentieth-century-level distillation coolers—there was basically no modern industry. Purple Treasure Studio had a bit of manufacturing, but it was purely handicraft. After destruction, as long as the transmigrator collective could continue supplying "Australian goods," rebuilding would be easy. Besides, there were many ways to avoid destruction. The Leizhou Station was different. It was a dual manufacturing-circulation facility. A modern sugar refinery in the hands of inexperienced indigenous people wouldn't operate long before completely breaking down. Moreover, the Leizhou Station had already invested substantial capital in local cane farmers. If abandoned midway, not only would the losses be enormous, but the damage to cane farmers' confidence would be devastating.
"Guangzhou is the provincial capital, the focus of official attention. So Guo Yi's side will have trouble surviving. My view is: evacuate Guangzhou, protect Leizhou." Wang Ding offered his proposal. "Leizhou—not just in the Ming era, even in the old time-space—was a place where the sky is high and the emperor is far. Ordinary people won't pay attention to it. There's a possibility of protecting it."
Moreover, the Leizhou Peninsula was right across from Lingao—half a day's voyage could reach Xuwen. Whether secretly dispatching the Special Reconnaissance Team for wet work or openly sending a Marine expeditionary force for punitive action, intervention was much more convenient than sailing for several days to reach Guangzhou.
"If anyone in Leizhou attempts to harm the Leizhou Station's properties, we can request the Executive Committee to deploy the Special Reconnaissance Team. After a few rounds of 'wet work,' no one will dare target Leizhou. We could even adopt more extreme measures—completely control the information flow between Leizhou's one prefecture and two counties and Guangzhou."
"Let's draft a memorandum for the Executive Committee and copy it to Si Kaide," Li Yan said. "As for the military intelligence, let's focus on what we have locally first—put existing materials to use."
Wang Ding added: "This is our first project. We not only need to succeed but also need to stand firmly on solid ground."
Everyone present nodded in agreement.
"Alright, I understand. We'll proceed according to your thinking." Jiang Shan yielded: he had somewhat caught the implication in Wang Ding's words.
The Foreign Intelligence Bureau subsequently issued intelligence collection instructions to the Guangzhou Station, requiring them to focus on gathering information about Guangdong Ming troop movements, force strength, and personnel information on commanders—especially troop movements. Whether the War Department planned to engage the enemy outside their borders or conduct a defensive counterattack, grasping Ming troop movements was always paramount.
Regarding military intelligence, the Foreign Intelligence Bureau spent several more days collecting and consulting various materials before finally producing an intelligence report.
Most of this report's content was copied from historical records, then analyzed and summarized based on fragmentary materials collected over the years by the Guangzhou and Leizhou stations.
"Although we lack sufficient materials on the Guangdong Ming forces' mobilization capability, based on the forces Yu Zigao deployed to the Pescadores to drive out the Dutch in 1624, we can roughly deduce how many forces the Ming can mobilize to attack Lingao."
When Yu Zigao attacked the Pescadores in August 1624, he deployed over ten thousand men and more than three hundred ships. The Dutch he faced had only fourteen vessels large and small, and the East India Company garrison on the Pescadores numbered only eight hundred.
From the force ratio alone, it was clear the Ming forces were fully aware of the military gap between themselves and Europeans, so they adopted a quantity-over-quality approach, relying on ten-to-one overwhelming numbers to force the Dutch out.
"We believe the Guangdong Ming forces will likely repeat this approach this time, still using the overwhelming force model to achieve the goal of making us voluntarily demolish our fortress and withdraw." Wang Ding explained the Foreign Intelligence Bureau's analysis item by item to attendees at the General Staff's military conference.
The Ming military commanders couldn't possibly be unaware that the transmigrator collective had built a fortress at Lingao and trained militia. And the reputation of the Australians' formidable ships and guns had long since spread.
The Ming commanders could certainly conclude that the enemy they faced was stronger, not weaker, than the Dutch of that era. So if they came to attack Lingao, the forces assembled would definitely be no fewer than Yu Zigao's.
"This time the Ming will bring more troops, not fewer. Otherwise their military operation cannot succeed. That's the first point," Wang Ding said. "Second, when Yu Zigao went to the Pescadores, it was a long-distance maritime deployment. Limited by the number of ships and sailors, he couldn't project more forces."
Moreover, the Pescadores area was basically uninhabited islands. Apart from water, grain, firewood, and everything else had to be supplied from the mainland. Yu Zigao's logistical pressure was enormous. Landing with just over ten thousand men was probably already at the limit of force projection.
But Lingao was different. Hainan Island had numerous prefectures and counties where some food could be acquired locally. They could also requisition laborers, livestock, and carts along the way. Logistical pressure would be much less.
"...In summary, we estimate the Ming will ultimately mobilize between twenty and thirty thousand troops by land and sea. The main force should be the Guangdong Regional Commander He Rubin's garrison's central battalion and his household retainers. This portion numbers about two thousand. Parts of the Governor's garrison and the Governor-General's central battalion may also be deployed."
"Where does this figure of two thousand for the garrison come from?" Dongmen Chuiyu asked.
"How many men are in the garrison isn't a secret in Guangzhou city," Wang Ding said. "Everyone knows."
"No inflated headcounts, empty positions to collect pay?"
"Inflated headcounts probably only happen in ordinary units. Core tactical units like this wouldn't."
"Any cavalry?"
"Guangdong's Ming forces have few horses. Only a small number of horses are maintained for officers to ride, for pack transport, for scouts, and for messengers. Cavalry as an assault force essentially doesn't exist. So we needn't worry about dealing with cavalry."
This wasn't just because horses were expensive or hard to obtain in Guangdong—Guangdong's climate was also unsuitable for horses. In all of Guangzhou city, large livestock like horses, donkeys, and mules were rarely seen. The military rarely kept them either.
"What about firearms?"
"Plenty of firearms," Wang Ding explained. Originally, the Guangdong Ming forces' firearms equipment ratio already exceeded sixty percent. Moreover, firearms quality had improved significantly recently. Wang Zunde's cannon-casting production campaign had dramatically increased the number of knockoff red-barbarian cannons in service.
"So they'll definitely bring lots of cloned red-barbarian cannons."
"Wang Zunde's knockoff red-barbarian cannons, according to Guangzhou Station reports and intelligence we've gathered through Foshan channels, are mainly 9-pounder and 12-pounder guns. Twelve-pounder cannons are too heavy—the Ming lack draft animals for towing and probably can't use them in field battle. They'll bring 9-pounders. Plus various old-style cannons like folangji."
"Guangdong Regional Commander He Rubin is known for his expertise in firearms. He even has a firearms treatise called Western Fire Attack Divine Weapons. He should have some understanding of cannon power and employment. We must pay attention to him." Zhang Bolin, having taken the artillery route, paid close attention to old-style firearms technology. He read every issue of the military history reference materials compiled by the Grand Library.
"He Rubin was an anti-Catholic figure. He was implicated in the Nanjing Church Case of Wanli year 44. At that time, Western firearms knowledge was entirely controlled by Catholics and missionaries. This anti-religious figure probably doesn't have any connection with Western priests—the origin of his treatise is also suspicious. He claims the book was written in Wanli year 34, yet the preface mentions Ningyuan—and before Wanli year 34, the court hadn't purchased any red-barbarian cannons." Yu Eshui laughed. "So I'd say if he comes to command the punitive expedition, his command of operations and employment of firearms won't be any different from any other regional commander of this time-space."
"Ming firearms aren't worth mentioning," Ying Yu said. "Even if we trade shots with them using our 12-pounder cannons, they'll still be completely defeated. The infantry probably won't even fire before the enemy routs."
"Let's not underestimate the enemy," He Ming said. "Continue. According to your estimate, about when will the Ming forces begin military operations?"
"Yes," Wang Ding nodded. "Our projection is that Ming forces will start no earlier than the second half of this year. Approximately in October."
"Isn't that estimate too broad?"
"The Dutch second landing on the Pescadores was in July 1622. The Ming government's determination to force them out through military action wasn't made until after October 1623. Yu Zigao's troops didn't deploy until August 1624—nearly a full year interval. That's probably the time needed to mobilize over ten thousand Ming troops."
Tens of thousands of troops couldn't normally be concentrated in one place. They were necessarily garrisoned in dispersed locations. For Wang Zunde to concentrate his forces wasn't something that could happen overnight. And according to Guangzhou Station intelligence, the Guangdong authorities hadn't even raised the military funding for the army to march.
"Actually, strictly speaking, Guangdong's military operations haven't even formally begun. Everything has to wait until military funding is secured before things really get moving."
But in the first half of the year, the Ming wouldn't have much usable time—Lingao was about to enter summer, and summer meant the start of the rainy season. The Ming army wasn't a modern force that could conduct operations in adverse weather conditions. If they couldn't begin the offensive before June, the attack would have to be postponed until after autumn.
"...After autumn, Lingao faces the threat of typhoons. If the Ming forces plan a combined land-sea attack, they probably won't begin until October at the earliest."
"Is there any possibility of Zheng Zhilong's involvement?" Chen Haiyang asked.
Wang Ding nodded: "Zheng Zhilong's forces are in a constant state of combat readiness and can deploy at any time—they're our biggest threat. However, Xiong Wencan won't curry favor with Wang Zunde by lending him Zheng Zhilong. And his own ability to restrain Zheng Zhilong is quite limited. Unless Zheng Zhilong sees profit in it, he won't wade into these murky waters."
"Is attacking us unprofitable? I'd say it's very profitable."
"He still has many opponents to deal with first. He can't possibly cross swords with us. He hasn't even finished off Li Kuiqi."
"According to our latest intelligence," Wang Ding produced a document, "Li Kuiqi's forces were recently destroyed by the combined attack of Zheng Zhilong and Zhong Bin."
Li Kuiqi's destruction made everyone's hearts tighten. Each time Zheng Zhilong eliminated a major enemy, his forces and influence expanded considerably, while there was one fewer power to restrain him. Zheng Zhilong's steps were drawing ever closer to Lingao.
Note: Li Kuiqi should have been destroyed in the second year of Chongzhen. I misremembered it as Zhong Bin. Actually, by this time Zhong Bin was also nearly destroyed.
Correction noted here.
(End of Chapter)