Chapter 116 - Coveting Jeju Island

“By any calculation, our current number of ships is not enough,” Thorpe said with some disappointment after the map exercise concluded.

In the exercise command post, everyone felt the same.

On the wide map table, the glass plate covering the large-scale map of the East China Sea region was already covered with lines and markers of various colors, with various small models scattered about.

The female orderlies responsible for marking and moving the models on the glass plate had retreated to the back, standing respectfully against the wall. In the past, the appearance, figure, and uniform style of the female orderlies had always been a favorite topic of discussion among the Elder officers, but now, not a single person cast a glance at them.

Not only the Elder officers, but also representatives from several collaborating departments such as the Ministry of Colonies and Trade and the Foreign Intelligence Bureau were present in the exercise room. They also wore troubled expressions.

The complexity of the Engine Operation far exceeded everyone’s estimates. Although they had resolved several preconditions—stockpiling materials, expanding shipbuilding capacity, recruiting and training sailors, and even expanding the quarantine camps—when it came to the seemingly simple task of transporting people back, the exercise revealed numerous problems.

From Dengzhou to Lin’gao, the straight-line distance on the map was over 1,500 nautical miles. From Lin’gao to Zhapu, the straight-line distance was about 900 nautical miles.

A typical sailing ship, considering the factors of sea currents and wind direction, had an average speed of about 2 to 4 knots. This means that, in ideal conditions, a ship could travel 96 nautical miles in 24 hours. The journey from Dengzhou to Lin’gao could be completed in 15 days, and a round trip in 30 days.

However, in reality, sailing ships cannot travel in a straight line at sea. To take advantage of favorable winds and currents, they generally follow more circuitous routes. Although no one had experience with a full-voyage sailing trip, according to the navy’s estimates, a single journey from Dengzhou to Lin’gao would take about 20 days. Considering that sailing in that era heavily depended on currents and wind direction, it was not impossible for the return trip to take twice as long. A generous estimate would put a round trip for a Harmony-class ship between Dengzhou and Lin’gao at about 40 days, including brief stops for rest and resupply in Lin’gao and Dengzhou.

Sailing ships cannot operate year-round. Navigation along the Chinese coast also has to consider avoiding the impact of typhoons in summer and autumn. The Council of Elders’ weather forecasting system was very weak. Even with meteorological stations established in places like the Dongsha and Xisha Islands, the radio was not capable of providing weather forecasts to ships at sea. Therefore, once the typhoon season began, navigation had to be suspended. This meant that the sailing season was no more than eight months a year, allowing for only about 6 round trips annually.

To transport 100,000 people from Shandong to Hainan, assuming each person required 2 tons of displacement, that would be 200,000 ton-people. To complete this within 8 months, a transport capacity of nearly 34,000 tons of displacement would be needed for the immigrants alone. Including the navy, sailors, and maintaining a certain fleet in Hainan, at the transit points, and in Shandong, a fleet with a displacement of over 50,000 tons would be required. In reality, this was an impossible plan for Lin’gao’s shipbuilding industry. Even for the ten thousand immigrants from Zhejiang, it would be difficult to transport them directly to Hainan.

Even if Shi Jiantao could complete the Planning Department’s order for 24 H-800 ships on time, the Harmony-class ships that could be “fully dedicated” to the Engine Operation would have a displacement of less than 20,000 tons. Adding other cobbled-together ships, the total could at most reach 30,000 tons.

To transport one hundred thousand people, it would take more than three years at this rate. This was simply too long.

Although some suggested that the slave ships from Africa to the Americas could achieve a transport standard of one person per ton, the high mortality rate of up to fifty percent on board was clearly not what the Elders were aiming for.

Herding a group of malnourished, terrified refugees onto ships packed like sardine cans and tossing them in the waves for over twenty days—it was hard to estimate how many would survive by the time they reached Lin’gao.

After all the trouble of getting people on board, the purpose was certainly not to play at burying bodies at sea. How to transport people back as healthy as possible was the first consideration of the operations command.

It was clear that the possibility of transporting people directly from Shandong or Zhejiang in one go was no longer high. The only solution was to set up stopover points along the way to temporarily “stockpile” the population. The first step was to transport the population out of Dengzhou as much as possible, and then transport them back in batches.

“According to our health department, it’s best to conduct a certain degree of purification and quarantine for the collected refugees locally or near the local area,” said Zhang Tumu, who represented the health department at the meeting. “Otherwise, with the crowded conditions and poor air circulation in the ship’s cabins, various epidemics can easily break out. The ships also lack the ability to handle such situations effectively. Not only will the mortality rate during the voyage be too high, but the health of the survivors who reach Lin’gao will also be greatly damaged.”

“We must find some midway transit points,” Chen Haiyang said. “It would be best, like the Guangzhou station, to set up a pre-purification camp locally or near the local area.”

Lin’gao needed manpower, especially those who spoke northern dialects. But this did not mean that all this manpower had to be brought back to Hainan immediately. The first step was actually just to get these people out of the control of the Ming Dynasty. Then, this manpower could be slowly transported to Hainan or other needed locations.

The advantage of setting up a purification camp nearby was that the number of people transported from Dengzhou each time could be greatly increased. If a 20-day sea voyage allowed for one person per ton, then if the voyage time was controlled within 7 days, there would be no need to load too much water and food on the ship, and the transport capacity per ton could be increased to 4 or even 5 people.

Of course, this purification camp should not be located on the mainland. Although the Transmigration Group had the armed forces and fortification techniques to repel any armed force on the mainland, the cost of building a large camp that could accommodate tens of thousands of people on the mainland and defending it from attack would be too high. In addition, it also had to be considered that the refugees, after getting a preliminary respite, might flee because they were unwilling to leave their homes or afraid of being transported overseas.

Therefore, this purification camp could only be located at sea, that is, on an offshore island.

An offshore island was not only secure—both the Ming army and pirates had weak amphibious warfare capabilities, and the Fubo Army could defend the island with only a small number of garrison troops and naval patrol boats—but it also limited the possibility of refugees attempting to escape.

Regarding the specific location of the offshore island, some suggested the Miaodao Islands, while others suggested the Changshan Islands or Liugong Island. These islands were all close to the Shandong Peninsula and had a certain amount of water resources, which could support tens of thousands of people for a short period of time—of course, food needed to be supplied from outside. Some also proposed setting up a purification camp in the Lushun area, directly occupying the currently abandoned Jinzhou city. However, these locations were either too close to the war zones of the Later Jin and the Ming, and easily interfered with by the Ming navy, or too close to the mainland—the Bohai Sea in that era froze much more severely than in the 21st century, and many small islands were connected to the mainland in winter. Therefore, many people proposed to capture Jeju Island as a transit center for Dengzhou.

Jeju Island is only 350 nautical miles from Dengzhou, a single voyage of only 3-4 days. A Harmony-class ship could easily pack in five or six hundred people.

At that time, the Joseon Dynasty’s control over Jeju Island was not strong, and the population on the island was not large. Jeju Island has an area of 18,000 square kilometers, and even in the 21st century, it only had a population of 550,000. At that time, the island was used by the Joseon Dynasty as a place of exile and a horse pasture. The population on the island would not exceed one or two ten-thousands at most, and many of them were government slaves who had no affection for the Joseon Dynasty. It was not expected to encounter much strong resistance.

The defensive forces on the island were very weak. The Elders were very clear about the military strength of the Joseon Dynasty; its military equipment was bizarre. It would not take much effort for the Fubo Army to capture Jeju Island. In addition, the strategic environment faced by Joseon at that time and its weak military strength meant that once they lost Jeju Island, it would be impossible for them to retake it.

Jeju Island has a warm current passing by, with a mild climate and abundant rainfall. Not only would the most needed water source for the purification camp not be a problem, but there were also rich fishing grounds nearby to supplement food.

Occupying Jeju Island would not only provide a stable purification camp but also acquire several thousand government horses from the local Korean horse farms. For the Council of Elders, which had long been short of horses, its value was no less than the tens of thousands of people transported from Dengzhou.

“…In the long run, occupying Jeju Island gives us an excellent base to interfere in the Liaodong war between the Ming and the Manchus in the west, and to intervene in Japan in the east,” said Luo Duo of the General Staff, who strongly advocated the occupation of Jeju Island. “Given the maritime power of the Ming, the Manchus, the Joseon Dynasty, and the Tokugawa at that time, none of them had the ability to launch a threatening attack on Jeju Island. We can ensure the security of the island with a small number of garrison troops. The refugees transported from Dengzhou do not all have to be transported back to Lin’gao; some can be settled on the spot. In the future, the horses we purchase from the mainland can also be raised on the island.”

“But what about cotton-padded clothes? It’s the Little Ice Age now, and the Bohai Sea is almost completely frozen. Without thick cotton-padded clothes, a large number of people would probably freeze to death. And food. Piling tens of thousands of people on Jeju Island will create great logistical pressure,” Thorpe said.

“Compared to Dengzhou or even places further south on the mainland, the temperature on Jeju Island is much higher. In the 20th century, the lowest winter temperature here was above 0 degrees Celsius—due to the warm current. They could grow citrus fruits during the Joseon Dynasty. You know, citrus fruits can’t be grown north of the Huai River. I don’t think the temperature at that time would be too low. Ordinary cotton-padded jackets would be enough. Besides, the ships from Lin’gao to Shandong don’t carry people, so the empty tonnage can be used to transport food, clothing, and building materials. After the refugees land on the island, they can also carry out self-rescue production activities on the spot. Even extensive farming can provide a certain amount of food supplement.”