Chapter Fifty-Nine: Military Intelligence

“The name ‘Ao-Song’ should not be used on a large scale externally for the time being,” Yu E’shui said. “The Red Turban rebels at the end of the Yuan Dynasty wanted to ‘reopen the Song sky with the sun and moon.’ Zhu Yuanzhang was also part of the Red Turban army, but in the end, he got rid of the ‘Little Ming King’ and created the ‘Great Ming.’ The Ming court will probably have some reservations about ‘descendants of the Great Song.’ At this stage, we can use the example of the Red Turban army and temporarily use a military name instead of a national title. I propose we call ourselves the ‘Fubo Army’—it’s very fitting.”

“Actually, we could call ourselves the GLA,” Wen Desi said. “The Global Liberation Army. That’s not bad, is it, State Councilor Ma?”

“We can use that later. The people of the Ming Dynasty won’t have any feeling for the name ‘GLA’ right now,” Ma Qianzhu said. “I think that from today onwards, we can start using the name ‘Fubo Army’ in our official documents and proclamations.”

Jiang Shan returned to his office at the Intelligence Bureau. As soon as he arrived, he received a call from He Ming, telling him to “quickly investigate the situation of the Ming army in Guangdong.”

“The Intelligence Bureau has only been established for a few days, and we already have a specific task,” Jiang Shan said at the evening meeting. “This is the first key project for our Foreign Intelligence Bureau. We must get it done, otherwise it will be difficult to secure a budget in the future.”

Wang Ding coughed and spoke first: “Most of this intelligence can be found in the archives of the general intelligence database. There is a lot of usable information in the historical records compiled by the Grand Library and the materials collected by the Guangzhou station over the years. I plan to conduct a search of this part of the data and then compile it.”

“Isn’t that intelligence too old?” Jiang Shan expressed his doubts.

“It may be old, but it’s only been two or three years. The situation of the Ming army won’t have changed much.”

“This matter still mainly relies on intelligence from the Guangzhou station,” said Xu Ke, the so-called “naval military intelligence officer.” “If the Ming army wants to attack Lingao, they must cross the sea. The Guangzhou station has informants at all the major transportation hubs in Guangdong. As long as there is a concentration of warships and troop movements, news will surely come. It’s useless for us to guess randomly here.”

So the informants were the outer counters of the various branches of the Qiwei Escort Agency. They reported their local observations to the head office in Guangzhou every five days by carrier pigeon. Although this intelligence was not very timely, considering the extremely slow marching speed of ancient armies, this speed was acceptable.

“If we just sit here waiting for intelligence from the Guangzhou station and collecting some archival materials to complete the task, then our Foreign Intelligence Bureau can just pack it up,” Jiang Shan said. “We have to send people to Guangdong! To specifically collect military intelligence.”

“Since we have already trained foreign intelligence personnel, this time collecting information on the movements of the Ming army in Guangdong is a good internship opportunity. We should let them go out and try. Qiongzhou is nothing. It’s when they get to Guangdong that they are truly like fish in the sea. The effectiveness of the training will be seen this time.” Xu Ke was also interested in this proposal. “If we are sending people, I am willing to go.”

“Isn’t it a bit too risky…”

“Since we are in intelligence work, we should be prepared for this kind of risk. Of course, we can’t ask our intelligence personnel to do dangerous things like sneaking into the main camp to take pictures, but they should at least have the ability to stand and observe.”

“Since it’s just standing and observing, why send more people? The Guangzhou station has informants in many places. It would be redundant for us to send more people,” Wang Ding objected. “Intelligence work in Guangdong should be done by the Guangzhou station. If Station Chief Guo indicates that he is short of manpower or has other difficulties, we can send people to the Guangzhou station to assist, but we absolutely cannot send other people. This is not only a waste of human resources but also a violation of work procedures.”

Wang Ding continued: “The key to intelligence work is analysis. Instead of just providing a pile of fragmented details, we should focus our energy on analyzing and organizing the existing information and submit a detailed and reliable report.”

Jiang Shan thought that this guy Wang Ding, ever since he became the head of the analysis department, had been singing the praises of “analysis is omnipotent” all day long, clearly trying to boost his own importance.

But his words were not easy to refute, and at this moment, Li Yan also echoed his views.

“That’s right. I also suggest that we focus our efforts on organizing, judging, and analyzing the existing data. As for what information is lacking, we can directly telegraph the Guangzhou station and have them collect it—this is their job.”

“That depends on how long the Guangzhou station can survive. Guo Yi and the others are not in a good situation.” Jiang Shan remembered the several telegrams that the Guangzhou station had sent recently, including how all parties were extending their greedy hands towards the Guangzhou station. Although the current situation was unclear, once the war started, it was a big unknown whether the various industries of the Guangzhou station could survive.

“Si Kaide is already discussing the situation of the Guangzhou-Leizhou station,” Li Yan said. “Although strictly speaking this is the business of the Colonial Trade Department, our Intelligence Bureau also has an obligation to protect the overseas stations.”

“My opinion is very simple: save the people, not the property,” Jiang Shan said. “As long as we can get the people out safely, that’s enough. Money is an external thing. If it’s gone, it’s gone. We can get it back a hundredfold in the future anyway.”

Li Yan said: “If possible, we should still try to preserve the property. I think it’s not out of the question to consider some expedient measures of ‘curving to save the nation,’ such as dedicating it to the local powerful gentry. This would at least allow the industry to continue to operate sustainably. Anyway, it will be easy to get it back in the future.”

“As for the scope of personnel safety, it should be broader.” Jiang Shan believed that the Guangzhou station had just completed a large-scale replacement and review of its personnel, and many of the staff were transferred from Lingao. It would be a pity to lose them. As for the locally hired craftsmen, servants, and managers, they should also be protected as much as possible—even if they could not be withdrawn to Lingao together, measures should be taken to ensure their personal and property safety.

“This will greatly increase the trust of the native personnel in us. They will know that we will not just run away in times of crisis.”

“And there’s the Leizhou station. Leizhou is a remote place, and the evil wind from Guangzhou won’t blow there for a while, but we still have to be on guard.”

“If you ask me, Guangzhou can be withdrawn, but Leizhou must not be withdrawn,” Wang Ding slammed the table resolutely. “Once Leizhou is withdrawn, the sugar industry will be finished.”

Guangzhou was a purely commercial circulation area. Apart from the distillery that had some modern technology—using 20th-century distillation coolers—there was basically no modern industry. Zizhenzhai had a little manufacturing, but it was purely handmade. After being destroyed, as long as the Transmigration Group could continue to supply “Australian goods,” it would be easy to rebuild. What’s more, there were many ways to avoid destruction. The Leizhou station was different. It was a dual facility for manufacturing and circulation. A modern sugar factory in the hands of inexperienced natives would not be able to operate for long before it was completely destroyed. Moreover, the Leizhou station had already invested a lot of capital in the local sugarcane farmers. If they gave up halfway, not only would their own losses be huge, but the damage to the confidence of the sugarcane farmers would be devastating.

“Guangzhou is the provincial capital and the focus of official attention. So it’s difficult for Guo Yi’s side to survive. Therefore, my view is to withdraw from Guangzhou and protect Leizhou,” Wang Ding suggested. “Leizhou, not to mention in the Ming Dynasty, was a place where the sky is high and the emperor is far away even in the old time-space. Most people wouldn’t pay attention to it. There is a possibility of protecting it.”

Moreover, the Leizhou Peninsula was right across from Lingao, and it only took half a day to cross the sea to Xuwen. Whether it was secretly dispatching the Special Reconnaissance Team to do wet work, or openly dispatching a marine expeditionary force to punish them, it was much more convenient to intervene than to sail for several days to Guangzhou.

“If someone in Leizhou tries to harm the industries of the Leizhou station, we can ask the Executive Committee to dispatch the Special Reconnaissance Team to take action. After a few rounds of ‘wet work,’ no one will dare to have any ideas about Leizhou. We can even adopt more extreme methods and completely control the flow of information between the one prefecture and two counties of Leizhou and Guangzhou.”

“Let’s draft a memorandum for the Executive Committee and send a copy to Si Kaide,” Li Yan said. “As for military intelligence, let’s focus on the local area—let’s use the existing information first.”

Wang Ding also said: “This is our first project. We not only need to achieve success, but also to stand firm.”

Everyone at the meeting nodded in agreement.

“Okay, I understand. We’ll do it your way,” Jiang Shan conceded. He seemed to have understood the underlying meaning of Wang Ding’s words.

The Foreign Intelligence Bureau then issued intelligence collection instructions to the Guangzhou station, requiring them to focus on collecting information on the movements of the Ming army in Guangdong, the strength of their troops, and the personal data of their generals, especially the movement of troops. Whether the Minister of War was preparing to meet the enemy outside the borders or to launch a defensive counterattack, mastering the movements of the Ming army was always the most important thing.

In terms of military intelligence, the Foreign Intelligence Bureau spent a few more days collecting and reviewing various materials, and finally produced a report.

Most of the content of this report was copied from historical records, and then analyzed and summarized based on the scattered information collected by the Guangzhou and Leizhou stations over the years.

“Although we lack sufficient information on the mobilization capabilities of the Guangdong Ming army, we can roughly deduce how many troops the Ming army can mobilize to attack Lingao based on the strength of Yu Zigao’s forces when he went to Penghu to expel the Dutch in 1624.”

When Yu Zigao dispatched troops to Penghu in August 1624, he sent out more than 10,000 men and more than 300 ships. The Dutch he faced had only 14 large and small ships, and the army of the Dutch East India Company stationed in the fortress in Penghu had only 800 men.

From the comparison of the forces of the two sides, it can be seen that the Ming army was fully aware of the military gap between itself and the Europeans, so they adopted the method of using quantity to offset quality, relying on the method of overwhelming the enemy with a ten-to-one advantage to force the Dutch to retreat.

“We believe that this time the Guangdong Ming army is likely to repeat its old trick and still adopt the model of overwhelming the border with a large army to achieve the goal of making us demolish our castle and retreat on our own.” Wang Ding explained the analysis of the Foreign Intelligence Bureau to the people present at the military meeting of the General Staff.

The Ming commander could not have been unaware that the Transmigration Group was building a castle and training a militia in Lingao. And the reputation of the Australians’ strong ships and sharp cannons had long been spread.

The Ming commander could certainly conclude that the enemy he was facing was stronger than the Dutch back then, so if he were to attack Lingao, the number of troops he would mobilize would definitely not be less than Yu Zigao’s forces back then.

“This time, the Ming army will only mobilize more troops, not less. Otherwise, their military action will not be successful. This is the first point,” Wang Ding said. “Secondly, Yu Zigao’s expedition to Penghu was a long-distance maritime projection. Limited by the number of ships and sailors, he could not project more troops.”

Moreover, the Penghu area was basically a barren island. Apart from water, all food, grass, and firewood had to be supplied from the mainland. Yu Zigao’s logistical pressure was very great, so his landing with more than 10,000 men had probably reached the limit of his force projection.

But Lingao was different. There were many prefectures and counties on Hainan Island, and some food could be solved locally. They could also conscript laborers, livestock, and vehicles along the way. The logistical pressure was much smaller.

“…In summary, we believe that the final mobilized force of the Ming army will be between 20,000 and 30,000 men, both land and sea. The main force should be the central battalion and personal retainers of the Guangdong General-in-Chief He Rubin. This part will have about 2,000 men. Some of the provincial and commandery central battalions may also be dispatched.”

“Where did this data of 2,000 men for the town standard come from?” Dongmen Chuiyu asked.

“It’s no secret in Guangzhou how many men the town standard has,” Wang Ding said. “Everyone knows.”

“No false reporting of numbers, no ‘empty quotas’?”

“False reporting of numbers would probably only happen in ordinary troops, not in a core tactical unit like this.”

“Do they have cavalry?”

“The Ming army in Guangdong doesn’t have many horses. There are only a small number of horses for the generals to ride, for transport, for scouting, and for sending messages. It can be said that there is no cavalry as a striking force. So we don’t have to worry about dealing with cavalry.”

This was not only because horses were expensive or difficult to source in Guangdong, but also because the climate in Guangdong was not suitable for horses. In the whole of Guangzhou, it was rare to see large livestock like horses, donkeys, or mules. The army rarely kept them either.

“What about firearms?”

“They have a lot of firearms,” Wang Ding introduced. The proportion of firearms in the Guangdong Ming army had already exceeded 60%. And there had been a great improvement in the quality of firearms recently. Wang Zunde’s cannon casting mass production campaign had led to a sharp increase in the number of imitation Hongyi cannons.

“So they will definitely bring a lot of cloned versions of the Hongyi cannon.”

“The Hongyi cannons imitated by Wang Zunde, according to reports from the Guangzhou station and information we have collected from the Foshan channel, are mainly 9-pounder and 12-pounder cannons. The 12-pounder is too heavy, and the Ming army lacks draft animals for traction, so it is unlikely to be used in field battles. They should bring the 9-pounder. There are also some old-style cannons such as the Frankish cannon.”

“The Guangdong General-in-Chief He Rubin is known for his skill with firearms. He has also written a book on firearms, ‘On the Divine Art of Western Fire Attack.’ He should be someone who has a certain understanding of the power and use of cannons. We must pay attention to him,” Zhang Bolin said. Because he had taken the artillery route, he was very concerned about old-style firearm technology. He read every issue of the military history reference materials compiled by the Grand Library.

“He Rubin is an anti-Catholic. He was implicated in the Nanjing religious case in the 44th year of the Wanli reign. At that time, knowledge of Western firearms was completely in the hands of Catholics and missionaries. This anti-Catholic person is unlikely to have any contact with Western missionaries—the source of his book is also very suspicious—he claimed that the book was written in the 34th year of the Wanli reign, but the preface mentions Ningyuan—and besides, the court had not bought any Hongyi cannons before the 34th year of the Wanli reign,” Yu E’shui said with a smile. “So I say that if he comes to command the expeditionary force, his command of battle and use of firearms will be no different from other general-in-chiefs of this time.”

“The firearms of the Ming army are not worth mentioning,” Ying Yu said. “Even if we have a cannon duel with them with our 12-pounder cannons, they will still be completely defeated. The enemy will probably retreat before the infantry even opens fire.”

“We should not be too complacent,” He Ming said. “Let’s continue the discussion. According to your estimates, when will the Ming army begin its military action?”

“Yes,” Wang Ding nodded. “Our estimate is that the Ming army will start at the earliest in the second half of this year, around October.”

“Isn’t that estimate too broad?”

“The Dutch landed on Penghu for the second time in July 1622. The Ming government’s determination to force them to retreat with military force was probably made after October 1623. Yu Zigao’s troops were not dispatched until August 1624, almost a full year apart. This is probably the time it takes for the Ming army to mobilize more than 10,000 men.”

Tens of thousands of troops could not be concentrated in one place on a daily basis; they must be stationed in a dispersed state. It was not a matter of a day or two for Wang Zunde to concentrate his troops. And according to intelligence from the Guangzhou station, the Guangdong government had not even raised the military funds for the army to set out.

“In fact, the military action on the Guangdong side has not yet officially begun, strictly speaking. All actions will only officially start after the military funds are in place.”

But the Ming army didn’t have much time in the first half of the year—Lingao was about to enter summer, which was the beginning of the rainy season. The Ming army was not a modern army that could carry out military operations in bad weather. If they couldn’t start the offensive before June, the attack would have to be postponed until after autumn.

“…After autumn, Lingao is threatened by typhoons. If the Ming army wants to attack by both land and water, they will have to wait until at least October to start the attack.”

“Is it possible for Zheng Zhilong to intervene?” Chen Haiyang asked.

Wang Ding nodded: “Zheng Zhilong’s men are in a state of full combat readiness and can be dispatched at any time. They are our biggest threat. But Xiong Wencan will not use Zheng Zhilong to curry favor with Wang Zunde. And his own ability to restrain Zheng Zhilong is also very limited. Unless Zheng Zhilong sees a profit, he will not get involved in this muddy water.”

“Is there no profit in attacking us? I think there is a great deal of profit to be made.”

“He still has many opponents to deal with. It’s impossible for him to go to war with us. Li Kuiqi hasn’t been dealt with yet.”

“According to our latest intelligence,” Wang Ding took out a document, “Li Kuiqi’s forces were recently destroyed in a joint attack by Zheng Zhilong and Zhong Bin.”

The news of Li Kuiqi’s demise made everyone’s heart tighten. Every time Zheng Zhilong eliminated a major enemy, it meant that his forces and influence had expanded greatly, and there was one less force to restrain him. Zheng Zhilong’s footsteps were getting closer and closer to Lingao.

[Note: Li Kuiqi should have been eliminated in the second year of the Chongzhen reign. I mistakenly remembered it as Zhong Bin. In fact, Zhong Bin was also about to be eliminated at this time. I am correcting it here.]